Climate change and Groundnut productivity in Nigeria: A Macro-Economic Investigation

Abstract

This study analyzed the effects of climate change on groundnut productivity in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022. It assessed how climate variables such as rainfall, temperature, sunshine duration, carbon dioxide emissions, and relative humidity influenced cassava productivity. The research utilized secondary data analyzed through econometric models, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The findings revealed among the climate variables, Average Annual Rainfall (LNARF), a lagged value of Average Annual Temperature (LNATEMP(-1)), a lagged value of Average Annual Relative Humidity (LNARELH(-1)), a lagged value of Average Annual Sunshine Duration (LNASUN(-1)), and the current value of Average Annual Sunshine Duration (LNASUN) exhibit significant impacts on groundnut productivity. Macroeconomic variables such as the previous year’s area of land under groundnut cultivation (LNALUC_GROUNDNUT(-1)), current and previous year’s value of Agricultural Foreign Direct Investment (LNAFDI & LNAFDI(-1) ), current and a lagged value of Private Domestic Investment in Agriculture (LNDIA & LNDIA(-1)), current previous year’s value of Government Capital Expenditure in Agriculture (LNGCEA & LNGCEA(-1)), previous year’s average annual inflation rate LN(INFR(-1)), and the current and previous year’s Real Exchange Rate (LNRER & LNRER(-1)) also exhibit notable effects. Improving groundnut productivity requires targeted investments in climate-resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure.